chi_shark
09-23 01:10 PM
this summary of the crisis is wrong... in fact *this* is unfair to ply people with
incorrect versions of news... nearing to lies... if intentional... the lack of liquidity stems from the fact that subprime borrowers are finding it hard to keep payments going after their payments reset on ARMs. CDOs that were based on mortgages were rated highly by rating agencies based on precedent of earlier years started losing buyers because payments were not coming through (ie default) and that led to lack of buyers and then there was a general exit from the CDO market... investment banks (like lehman) are allowed by fed regulators to classify certain assets as investments and hence not re-evaluate value them (or mark them to market) every once in a while... however, in light of actual default on some assets and ensuing lack of market interest, they started writing down asset values... thats when they collapsed... there was no way people would have come back in 30 years to buy an asset for which the underlying payments had already stopped...
hope this sets the facts straight or at least gives a different point of view for people to chew on.
The 700Bn or whatever the final number is not entirely a drain.....
the thing with all these exotic securities is not that they are completely worthless but that there is no market for these right now and hence are illiquid - so if someone had the ability to keep these securities for a long term (say 30 years - since most mortgages are for 30 years) on their balance sheet - they may not lose as much money as they would if they tried to liquidate these investments in the short term.
Financial Institutions typically borrow short term to invest in long term investments and keep renewing the short term borrowings - since the underlying investment has become illiquid - it has become difficult to raise financing against it. the govt, howver, can take a long term view and be patient....who knows.....in the end - the Govt may actually come out with positive cash flow at the end of all this mess. So, the bail-out plan may not be as bad an idea as media is portraying it to be.........in short-term - it does take US into further indebtedness.
I already have a GC - so this debate does not impact me personally - but this is against the basic principals of natural justice.......GC applicants were placed into certain EB categories based on job descriptions and qualifications and then within queues assigned priority dates based on certain logic and are currently being approved based on PD and country quotas..........all these rules were known and published prior to companies and people applying for these GCs.....
No matter what the incremental benefit is, I think its blatantly unfair (like it was blatantly unfair to push some people to labor backlog centers and approving people with later PDs first) to change the rules of engagement and prioritization midway through the process and give preference to someone based on an ability to invest certain $$s in an house.......buying a house is a commercial and lifestyle decision........should not be a precursor to a USCIS adjudication.......
keep the red dots coming folks!
incorrect versions of news... nearing to lies... if intentional... the lack of liquidity stems from the fact that subprime borrowers are finding it hard to keep payments going after their payments reset on ARMs. CDOs that were based on mortgages were rated highly by rating agencies based on precedent of earlier years started losing buyers because payments were not coming through (ie default) and that led to lack of buyers and then there was a general exit from the CDO market... investment banks (like lehman) are allowed by fed regulators to classify certain assets as investments and hence not re-evaluate value them (or mark them to market) every once in a while... however, in light of actual default on some assets and ensuing lack of market interest, they started writing down asset values... thats when they collapsed... there was no way people would have come back in 30 years to buy an asset for which the underlying payments had already stopped...
hope this sets the facts straight or at least gives a different point of view for people to chew on.
The 700Bn or whatever the final number is not entirely a drain.....
the thing with all these exotic securities is not that they are completely worthless but that there is no market for these right now and hence are illiquid - so if someone had the ability to keep these securities for a long term (say 30 years - since most mortgages are for 30 years) on their balance sheet - they may not lose as much money as they would if they tried to liquidate these investments in the short term.
Financial Institutions typically borrow short term to invest in long term investments and keep renewing the short term borrowings - since the underlying investment has become illiquid - it has become difficult to raise financing against it. the govt, howver, can take a long term view and be patient....who knows.....in the end - the Govt may actually come out with positive cash flow at the end of all this mess. So, the bail-out plan may not be as bad an idea as media is portraying it to be.........in short-term - it does take US into further indebtedness.
I already have a GC - so this debate does not impact me personally - but this is against the basic principals of natural justice.......GC applicants were placed into certain EB categories based on job descriptions and qualifications and then within queues assigned priority dates based on certain logic and are currently being approved based on PD and country quotas..........all these rules were known and published prior to companies and people applying for these GCs.....
No matter what the incremental benefit is, I think its blatantly unfair (like it was blatantly unfair to push some people to labor backlog centers and approving people with later PDs first) to change the rules of engagement and prioritization midway through the process and give preference to someone based on an ability to invest certain $$s in an house.......buying a house is a commercial and lifestyle decision........should not be a precursor to a USCIS adjudication.......
keep the red dots coming folks!
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gomirage
06-12 10:30 PM
Exactly what I had tried to express, you have succinctly put them in numbers. Thank you
Both of you are missing the point. No matter how you spin it, 140,000 people getting GC per is better than reduced quota of say 80,000.
Have you asked yourselves how you would fare if H1B program did not exist. I am not saying that you will not get GC without h1b and EB programs, sure you could go the uggly way, getting married to the fat lady in your apartment building for example.
To sum it up I would take long wait compared to no program or a nobel-prizes only program, any day of the week.
peace.
Both of you are missing the point. No matter how you spin it, 140,000 people getting GC per is better than reduced quota of say 80,000.
Have you asked yourselves how you would fare if H1B program did not exist. I am not saying that you will not get GC without h1b and EB programs, sure you could go the uggly way, getting married to the fat lady in your apartment building for example.
To sum it up I would take long wait compared to no program or a nobel-prizes only program, any day of the week.
peace.
GCOP
07-24 11:33 AM
We appreciate your nice prediction and Good Wishes. I hope your words will turn into truth. Thanks
Trust me. I was under the impression that it will be 3-4 years before I see green, but the reality is almost true for me now. Similarly, EB3 folks would get some news by next year. Who knows, the government will change and we have seen how keenly Obama wants a change ;). May be recapturing visas provision will be considered next year and everyone until 2006(EB3) may see some green. We never know. It's all magic and lets hope for the best. :D
Trust me. I was under the impression that it will be 3-4 years before I see green, but the reality is almost true for me now. Similarly, EB3 folks would get some news by next year. Who knows, the government will change and we have seen how keenly Obama wants a change ;). May be recapturing visas provision will be considered next year and everyone until 2006(EB3) may see some green. We never know. It's all magic and lets hope for the best. :D
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gcgoingon
06-14 05:33 PM
I guess my 9 months old prediction is coming true (off by a month).
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/1049939-post209.html
I hope your predictions for the coming months also come true..
I do not know why the bulletin is so conservative about the EB2-I estimates for the year 2010 (March/April 2006)?
The reason I am saying this is the initial estimate they gave for EB2-I in Jan '10 bulletin is Feb/March 2005.
http://immigrationvoice.org/forum/1049939-post209.html
I hope your predictions for the coming months also come true..
I do not know why the bulletin is so conservative about the EB2-I estimates for the year 2010 (March/April 2006)?
The reason I am saying this is the initial estimate they gave for EB2-I in Jan '10 bulletin is Feb/March 2005.
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thomachan72
03-27 12:52 PM
I am just wondering.....
when will the day come when a lot of us will rush to Delhi.....braving the cold/heat....stand for hours........dancing to tunes of pop singers......while awaiting our beloved PM to show up and take oath of office........just like hundreds of thousands did when obama took office.........
I am just wondering.....
will any one of us spend money to travel to Delhi to witness the next swearing cermony, assuming it where held in an open place, lets say raj ghat or something like that.
I am wondering.....
when will that charismatic leader (with really good intentions and sence of direction) emerge? from, a billion? Why is it taking so long? Is the whole germ pool spoiled? why dont we get the good ones to lead such populated nations? I dont have a clue about where and with whom the problem lies....
when will the day come when a lot of us will rush to Delhi.....braving the cold/heat....stand for hours........dancing to tunes of pop singers......while awaiting our beloved PM to show up and take oath of office........just like hundreds of thousands did when obama took office.........
I am just wondering.....
will any one of us spend money to travel to Delhi to witness the next swearing cermony, assuming it where held in an open place, lets say raj ghat or something like that.
I am wondering.....
when will that charismatic leader (with really good intentions and sence of direction) emerge? from, a billion? Why is it taking so long? Is the whole germ pool spoiled? why dont we get the good ones to lead such populated nations? I dont have a clue about where and with whom the problem lies....
go_guy123
03-17 11:13 AM
such people cut in line in front of us and don't even bother paying money to IV. Why should we give them free advice. If they can spend money buying labor for 20K they can spend hundred dollars and consult a lawyer and ask their question. It is with such mentaility they are brought up with in their country- Currption and getting things done with money. But never paying anyone for a just cause. In my country people contribute only when they fear god in temples, for medical treatment or to astrologers!!
At least on this forum we can have the resolve to fight such people who are hurting most of us.
Good that DOL/USCIS is getting rid of labor selling by voiding after 45 days
( in the final rule that might be raised a bit ...to 90days ...which is justified and reasonable)
At least on this forum we can have the resolve to fight such people who are hurting most of us.
Good that DOL/USCIS is getting rid of labor selling by voiding after 45 days
( in the final rule that might be raised a bit ...to 90days ...which is justified and reasonable)
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snathan
08-16 12:24 AM
Poverty is the reality of our subcontinent, the reason Kasab took arms was out of ignorance not due to deliberate fundamentalism, even if latter were true, it is all desperation. The thousands of hungry dying people you point out might just take up arms if they had a choice to beat poverty.
How bright were we when we were 20 year olds? I am in no way supporting Kasab, he will meet his end eventually. But we need to open our minds to the root causes of terrorism, when we do that we have an opportunity to leave our children with a better world. Cutting someone into pieces won't fetch you much, that is no different from Taliban's approach of stoning infidel women, singers and anti-shariats.
It doesnt mean that we need to take arathy for Kasab. He needs to meet his end soon. Poverty used to be a cause for terrorism once up on a time. I dont think people are starving in Saudi Arabia. I dont think Absal Guru was dying for good. But still was commiting terror against innocent people.
How bright were we when we were 20 year olds? I am in no way supporting Kasab, he will meet his end eventually. But we need to open our minds to the root causes of terrorism, when we do that we have an opportunity to leave our children with a better world. Cutting someone into pieces won't fetch you much, that is no different from Taliban's approach of stoning infidel women, singers and anti-shariats.
It doesnt mean that we need to take arathy for Kasab. He needs to meet his end soon. Poverty used to be a cause for terrorism once up on a time. I dont think people are starving in Saudi Arabia. I dont think Absal Guru was dying for good. But still was commiting terror against innocent people.
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desigirl
01-13 03:17 PM
Plainspeak - From one girl to another - you have a lot of time to kill :) For members who did not get worked up by your post, everyone has had a good laugh! Thanks.
Trying to have a discussion on your points is meaningless (at least to me) as I do not believe in conceit.
BTW, you don't have to respond to my post, as I will not be checking it.
Trying to have a discussion on your points is meaningless (at least to me) as I do not believe in conceit.
BTW, you don't have to respond to my post, as I will not be checking it.
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jchan
07-25 10:48 AM
VDLRAO - You brought lot of valid points which supported by authentic statistics. But surprisingly Ron�s comment about the Aug bulletin is totally vague. You can throw the numbers to prove your claim but I don�t think Ron really has any such numerical explanation for his statement.
With all due respect, I beg to differ from Ron (probably for the first time).
I agree with vdlrao completely. The horizontal spill over rule essentially gives all EB1/EB2 visa to EB2's. This will make the EB2 cutoff dates leap and bounce forward. For EB3, however, there won't be any spill over data until EB2 become all current.
In Oppennheimer's reply to Ron Gotcher's question, he mentioned that the horizontal rule was set after he 'had consulation with the congress', so it's very unlikely to have any change to this rule till some legislation changes take place.
With all due respect, I beg to differ from Ron (probably for the first time).
I agree with vdlrao completely. The horizontal spill over rule essentially gives all EB1/EB2 visa to EB2's. This will make the EB2 cutoff dates leap and bounce forward. For EB3, however, there won't be any spill over data until EB2 become all current.
In Oppennheimer's reply to Ron Gotcher's question, he mentioned that the horizontal rule was set after he 'had consulation with the congress', so it's very unlikely to have any change to this rule till some legislation changes take place.
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hopefulgc
02-13 07:36 PM
Done.
hopefulgc - please dedicate some time and update your first post with more information on lawsuit, you may want to quote lazycis 's posts and other information.
A lot of people may not be very knowledgable and may backoff when they see the word "lawsuit".
Those who are saying YES on the poll - it is assumed that you will not backoff - if you have not yet updated your profile on IV - please update your complete profile - this will show that you can be counted on.
hopefulgc - please dedicate some time and update your first post with more information on lawsuit, you may want to quote lazycis 's posts and other information.
A lot of people may not be very knowledgable and may backoff when they see the word "lawsuit".
Those who are saying YES on the poll - it is assumed that you will not backoff - if you have not yet updated your profile on IV - please update your complete profile - this will show that you can be counted on.
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saketkapur
07-04 12:29 PM
Application for 1 person:
1. Lawyers fees = $500...............paid by me....not sure if any paid by my company
2. AP+EAD = $350(170+180).....paid by me
3. I-485 = $395..........paid by company
6. Fedex = $60...........paid by me
7. Medical = $170(no shots needed except TB test)....paid by me
So all i all I paid $1080 and my company paid atleast $395(and maybe some legal fees too)
And belive me guys I am at the lower threshold since I did not need any shots and did not loose any work days........
So minimum loss to the company and individual(1 pesron only)is atleast 1475 bucks. So before making any conclusions keep this as the lowest threshold.However since we might get the $395+$350 back so the net loss to the individual at minimum will be $730/person and maybe $500/person to the company so making it atleast $1230/for 1 person.
Assuming that appx. 45000 people were planning to apply....I guess we are at minimum $55350000 loss......and this is a very modest estimate......as I mentioned at the lower threshold.
1. Lawyers fees = $500...............paid by me....not sure if any paid by my company
2. AP+EAD = $350(170+180).....paid by me
3. I-485 = $395..........paid by company
6. Fedex = $60...........paid by me
7. Medical = $170(no shots needed except TB test)....paid by me
So all i all I paid $1080 and my company paid atleast $395(and maybe some legal fees too)
And belive me guys I am at the lower threshold since I did not need any shots and did not loose any work days........
So minimum loss to the company and individual(1 pesron only)is atleast 1475 bucks. So before making any conclusions keep this as the lowest threshold.However since we might get the $395+$350 back so the net loss to the individual at minimum will be $730/person and maybe $500/person to the company so making it atleast $1230/for 1 person.
Assuming that appx. 45000 people were planning to apply....I guess we are at minimum $55350000 loss......and this is a very modest estimate......as I mentioned at the lower threshold.
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Dionysios
10-12 02:11 PM
My uncle was a green card holder for approx. 40 years when he lived and worked in the US. During this time, he became eligible for medicare and medicaid. A few years ago he decided to return to his original home country. As he did not and does not have any plans to return to the US to live, he surrendered his green card at the US consulate. However, when he recently applied for a non-immigrant visa to visit the US to use the services covered by medicare, he was denied a visa. It seems quite unfair that he worked in the US, paid all the necessary taxes and withholdings and is now prevented in using the medicare services. Is there anything he can do?
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aps
09-23 01:53 AM
This is not fair and good idea. what about people waiting in line for years and invested their money elsewhere because of this green card delays or those who do not have enough money and job in this market situation. All of the sudden you are brining this idea. This is not fair. This is kind of buying green card. There is a investment based green card category available for that. I request you to go through that channel if you are rich. Not all employment based green card seekers are rich. Please keep that in mind.
thanks,
aps
thanks,
aps
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rahulpaper
06-27 10:03 PM
Isn�t the visa number limited to a upper threshold for each EB category for each country...How does these number move around between various countries....doesn�t that mean people from India and China (2 countries with most retrogression and paranoia) are looking at a very small number (~2K-4K) and not 40K in July?
Can someone comment on this number issue?
Yes I agree.. But if they don't move date foward then they can't approve those backlog applications.And they don't want to loose 40,000 visas . Now when they made all date current, they can approve all those pending application which are complete and just waiting for date to become current. Now we don't know real number and don't know how long it will take USCIS to do all approvals. But if they approve 40,000 in 2 weeks, I won't be surprised if they make it 'U' like other workers.
But then question still remains why they made all current. They could have just moved it by year or so.. And I am sure they know how many application they can expect in July.. I already saw some where that we have around more then 80,000 approved perm.. All they going to apply.. And what about all whose labor just got approved fro Backlog centers?
Its making everybody confused.. But its not in our hand and we can't do anything. Best thing is to file asap and just hope for best and we are always ready for worst..
Just think if they make date 'U' in middle of july, how many member going to loose money. Each of us spent so much money this month and if nothing happens that we loose all of it.
Can someone comment on this number issue?
Yes I agree.. But if they don't move date foward then they can't approve those backlog applications.And they don't want to loose 40,000 visas . Now when they made all date current, they can approve all those pending application which are complete and just waiting for date to become current. Now we don't know real number and don't know how long it will take USCIS to do all approvals. But if they approve 40,000 in 2 weeks, I won't be surprised if they make it 'U' like other workers.
But then question still remains why they made all current. They could have just moved it by year or so.. And I am sure they know how many application they can expect in July.. I already saw some where that we have around more then 80,000 approved perm.. All they going to apply.. And what about all whose labor just got approved fro Backlog centers?
Its making everybody confused.. But its not in our hand and we can't do anything. Best thing is to file asap and just hope for best and we are always ready for worst..
Just think if they make date 'U' in middle of july, how many member going to loose money. Each of us spent so much money this month and if nothing happens that we loose all of it.
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jonty_11
06-28 12:34 PM
Another rumour is that this rumour abt mid month retro is being spread by lawyers..so that self-filers rush to file and make obvious mistakes and have to hire services of immi lawyers second time around.....!!!
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thomachan72
01-13 09:39 PM
Do you think with a cordinated effort on part of the IV members that we could/should write a well drafted letter to the USCIS to not target H1b worker for the cause of unemployment. Highlighting the various well researched articles that clearly say that H1b creates/retains jobs and the more they target H1b the more employment is affected. The real problem is outsourcing.
I am just trying to put a thought out into the forum. Let us see what the IV leaders say. Somebody said that AILA was working to halt this process maybe we should write to them and extend our support first??
I am just trying to put a thought out into the forum. Let us see what the IV leaders say. Somebody said that AILA was working to halt this process maybe we should write to them and extend our support first??
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alterego
02-13 10:56 PM
I doubt we can see a visa number increase until the CIR bus comes around again. It is anyones guess when that will be.
I think the only things that might stand a chance is visa recapture. If there are even 150-200K visas recaptured, this will tremendously improve retrogression for up to 2 years. Pressure is building on legislators from both employers and state gov't putting up arbitrary rules which are splitting communities. The enforcement approach taken by gov't is also giving pause for thought to some moderates on this issue. McCains ascension to republican nominee will serve to cool the temperature on this issue during the election season. Hopefully they can do something transitional in the interim which includes visa recapture.
After now 3 yrs of heavy retrogression, this is getting really bad.
I think the only things that might stand a chance is visa recapture. If there are even 150-200K visas recaptured, this will tremendously improve retrogression for up to 2 years. Pressure is building on legislators from both employers and state gov't putting up arbitrary rules which are splitting communities. The enforcement approach taken by gov't is also giving pause for thought to some moderates on this issue. McCains ascension to republican nominee will serve to cool the temperature on this issue during the election season. Hopefully they can do something transitional in the interim which includes visa recapture.
After now 3 yrs of heavy retrogression, this is getting really bad.
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unseenguy
05-29 02:54 PM
No one is arguing that lot of EB1Cs do not deserve the classification, however; that is not the root cause why we are backlogged. You might get 1000more visas , you would think but at the end of the day , you will close that gateway as well. 1000 EB1 visas are not a major relief for us. And if you think that will resolve the issue, you are mistaken.
There is a political decision to backdate the country dates and hence even if you take up Eb1 issue, they will close that line as well, but those visas will not translate into more visas for us. Bureaucrats can come up with gazillion excuses as to why spillover did not happen such as "there is now demand for religious workers".
So do not deviate the focus of the community. Our purpose is to get our GC, not stop someone else from getting a GC. Thinking otherwise mean , divisive and selfish mentality! or plain jealousy. Has anyone stopped you from working for Cognizant?
We need transparency and better predictability in the whole process. Someone said Oppenheim knows more than many of us. My question is why should we trust him? Shouldent there be a system that gives clear picture to everyone?
Bottomline is we need to choose our battles! EB1 is not the battle we need to fight right now.
There is a political decision to backdate the country dates and hence even if you take up Eb1 issue, they will close that line as well, but those visas will not translate into more visas for us. Bureaucrats can come up with gazillion excuses as to why spillover did not happen such as "there is now demand for religious workers".
So do not deviate the focus of the community. Our purpose is to get our GC, not stop someone else from getting a GC. Thinking otherwise mean , divisive and selfish mentality! or plain jealousy. Has anyone stopped you from working for Cognizant?
We need transparency and better predictability in the whole process. Someone said Oppenheim knows more than many of us. My question is why should we trust him? Shouldent there be a system that gives clear picture to everyone?
Bottomline is we need to choose our battles! EB1 is not the battle we need to fight right now.
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pitha
09-24 12:39 PM
EB2 India forward movement will happen if and only IF USCIS\DOS does Eb1-->eb2 Row-->Eb2 India \China visa spillover every quarter. There are 4050 pending eb1 485, assuming about 2000 more eb1 485 are added for the next 2 months ther will be 4000 Eb1 (10000-4050-2000) visas avialable for spillover in December 2009. If DOS does a spillover into Eb2 ROW then there would be forward movement for Eb2 India as there are only 7150 Eb2 ROW 485 pending and if 1000 more eb2 row are added for next 2 months EB2 India\china should get approximately 6000 visas [10000 -7150(pending eb2 485-1000(new eb2 485 for next 2 months) + 4000(spillover from Eb1)]. If they dont do spillover the above way then Eb2 india dates would most probably move back until August\Spetember 2010. Can we request DOS to do spilllover every quarter instead of every year because they know the demand from the USCIS report and lot of Eb2 India\ China 485 are pre adjudicated.
amitjoey
07-03 06:03 PM
clochhead@sfchronicle.com.
ryan
08-18 10:44 PM
I'm not from India, so you know how non-Indian will look at this issue..
And it goes on and on for 66 mins or 2 hrs until he finally realize that he's a nobody in US.
This is the kinda thread that non-Indian will laugh at. There's lots of non-Indian that goes to this public forum (such as me). Just trying to help IV to not lose credential just because of this sorts of "indian" exclusive thread.
I agree / hear you. The post is laughable, nevertheless if you read through the comments, you'd see being 'Indian' does not equate to having similar views. I think the majority of Indian folks who leave their homes / loved ones to make a living have more intelligence and substance to them than the bozos in 'bollywood' - a national and an international embarrassment. Admins, please consider removing this post.
And it goes on and on for 66 mins or 2 hrs until he finally realize that he's a nobody in US.
This is the kinda thread that non-Indian will laugh at. There's lots of non-Indian that goes to this public forum (such as me). Just trying to help IV to not lose credential just because of this sorts of "indian" exclusive thread.
I agree / hear you. The post is laughable, nevertheless if you read through the comments, you'd see being 'Indian' does not equate to having similar views. I think the majority of Indian folks who leave their homes / loved ones to make a living have more intelligence and substance to them than the bozos in 'bollywood' - a national and an international embarrassment. Admins, please consider removing this post.
