Berkeleybee
03-10 12:41 PM
Sbdol,
Our goal from these meetings is simple: to get the issue on the radar.
Remember usually when lawmakers/lawmaker district office staff hear "immigration" they think "illegal immigration." Our presentation is usually the beginning of their education -- we have no expectation that they have "deep" or any knowledge of the nitty gritty.
All we want is that they send our material to their Immigration aide in DC, and recognize that there is an issue out there.
BTW, sbdol what volunteer team are you on?
best,
Berkeleybee
Our goal from these meetings is simple: to get the issue on the radar.
Remember usually when lawmakers/lawmaker district office staff hear "immigration" they think "illegal immigration." Our presentation is usually the beginning of their education -- we have no expectation that they have "deep" or any knowledge of the nitty gritty.
All we want is that they send our material to their Immigration aide in DC, and recognize that there is an issue out there.
BTW, sbdol what volunteer team are you on?
best,
Berkeleybee
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bobzibub
02-01 02:25 PM
OK, they'll raise the fees (I can live with that). But how do we improve the chances of better services?
USCIS is asking for comments....If IV would be so kind as to submit comments for the raising of the fees. I humbly throw these out for discussion:
Accept the fee increases providing:
1) That USCIS propose public standards of reducing processing times to 30 days+10 day security check.. Automatically produce an EAD if it takes longer. Hey. We're all still in the country whether the process succeeds or not right? We would just appeal, submit more info or beat it until it's done. Who's any safer?
2) That RFEs not be used to manage work levels. Plus they ought not to reset the 90 day clock to zero if they issue one. That is ridiculous and unheard of.
3) That they simplifiy applications (a la Canada) so that "lay persons" can (carefully) fill in the forms. Lawyers not required.
4) That the USCIS abide by the laws. Especially regarding FBI name checking. We have a duty to follow the law. I'm careful to do so. The government should be careful to do so as well.. Call me a radical.
5) That they publish proposals to stream line the process with modern business methods and concrete goals. The increases should be tied to fulfilling stated goals of improvements of service. Otherwise they roll back. Have a 3rd (independent) party decide if the goals have been met in three years.
If we tax payers are giving them extraordinary increases in fees, we should at least expect some meaningful process improvements. Simply claiming that they need-the-cash-for-process-improvements is not sufficient. What is to prevent them from using the money to give everyone big raises and bonuses and a nice fancy new office, and big fancy new computers if they're going to continue to use paper and use the computers to access rickety old systems with terminal emulators? I'd love to deal with happy USCIS employees, but I'd love it even more if I had to deal efficient USCIS employees. (Give them the tools and they'll be happier!)
USCIS is asking for comments....If IV would be so kind as to submit comments for the raising of the fees. I humbly throw these out for discussion:
Accept the fee increases providing:
1) That USCIS propose public standards of reducing processing times to 30 days+10 day security check.. Automatically produce an EAD if it takes longer. Hey. We're all still in the country whether the process succeeds or not right? We would just appeal, submit more info or beat it until it's done. Who's any safer?
2) That RFEs not be used to manage work levels. Plus they ought not to reset the 90 day clock to zero if they issue one. That is ridiculous and unheard of.
3) That they simplifiy applications (a la Canada) so that "lay persons" can (carefully) fill in the forms. Lawyers not required.
4) That the USCIS abide by the laws. Especially regarding FBI name checking. We have a duty to follow the law. I'm careful to do so. The government should be careful to do so as well.. Call me a radical.
5) That they publish proposals to stream line the process with modern business methods and concrete goals. The increases should be tied to fulfilling stated goals of improvements of service. Otherwise they roll back. Have a 3rd (independent) party decide if the goals have been met in three years.
If we tax payers are giving them extraordinary increases in fees, we should at least expect some meaningful process improvements. Simply claiming that they need-the-cash-for-process-improvements is not sufficient. What is to prevent them from using the money to give everyone big raises and bonuses and a nice fancy new office, and big fancy new computers if they're going to continue to use paper and use the computers to access rickety old systems with terminal emulators? I'd love to deal with happy USCIS employees, but I'd love it even more if I had to deal efficient USCIS employees. (Give them the tools and they'll be happier!)
hpandey
12-27 11:42 AM
First of all, not everyone here is from India. Second, not everyone here is from programming/IT background. It is easy to make that assumption, but believe me, there are plenty of non-indians, or non-IT people, and even non-Indian, non-IT people here. :D
For these, what is or is not happening in Bangalore is completely irrelevant.
Second, people who are still here have already decided where they want to be. (Which is why they are on the forum in the first place). People change countries for more reasons than just following the next IT boom.
Anyway, regarding impact on opportunities here, there is a common misconception that companies have unlimited access to talent in other countries, and the only limiting factor is the quota of H1B visas.
Not true, by a long shot.
To give a simple example, our company is looking for people in Australia, Denmark, Finland, Canada and UK since the pool of qualified people in India has dried up in our field. Can anyone guess where is the biggest talent pool? Nope, not in Bangalore, its right here in USA!! Not all companies are looking for the cheapest person. They are looking for the best person. And in many cases, the best person is already here, and has gathered more experience over the years working for US companies. But they cannot hire her, simply because she is on a visa and thereby beholden to another company. If she had a GC, that would free up the talent pool and thereby make many companies less reliant on H1Bs. Increasing GCs for EB candidates has the same effect as increasing H1 quota, with the added benefit of making the cream of the crop available and reducing the uncertainty and hassle of hiring an H1.
When you outsource, you lose this talent pool which is already sitting in your backyard. You may still outsource, of course, but the most cost effective solution would be to hire the top talent already here. This is especially true in professions which do not work very well in outsourced situations, like business consulting, marketing, management etc.
This is why it is in the best interest of companies to support EB GCs.
Pineapple .. you hit the nail right on the head. It is a misconception that everything is cool in India. There are a lot more problems than just your salary. Money is not everything . I think standard of living and less corruption , cleanliness and less crowd do count towards life.
For these, what is or is not happening in Bangalore is completely irrelevant.
Second, people who are still here have already decided where they want to be. (Which is why they are on the forum in the first place). People change countries for more reasons than just following the next IT boom.
Anyway, regarding impact on opportunities here, there is a common misconception that companies have unlimited access to talent in other countries, and the only limiting factor is the quota of H1B visas.
Not true, by a long shot.
To give a simple example, our company is looking for people in Australia, Denmark, Finland, Canada and UK since the pool of qualified people in India has dried up in our field. Can anyone guess where is the biggest talent pool? Nope, not in Bangalore, its right here in USA!! Not all companies are looking for the cheapest person. They are looking for the best person. And in many cases, the best person is already here, and has gathered more experience over the years working for US companies. But they cannot hire her, simply because she is on a visa and thereby beholden to another company. If she had a GC, that would free up the talent pool and thereby make many companies less reliant on H1Bs. Increasing GCs for EB candidates has the same effect as increasing H1 quota, with the added benefit of making the cream of the crop available and reducing the uncertainty and hassle of hiring an H1.
When you outsource, you lose this talent pool which is already sitting in your backyard. You may still outsource, of course, but the most cost effective solution would be to hire the top talent already here. This is especially true in professions which do not work very well in outsourced situations, like business consulting, marketing, management etc.
This is why it is in the best interest of companies to support EB GCs.
Pineapple .. you hit the nail right on the head. It is a misconception that everything is cool in India. There are a lot more problems than just your salary. Money is not everything . I think standard of living and less corruption , cleanliness and less crowd do count towards life.
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raydhan
04-02 12:40 PM
Sent both faxes
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gianik
05-26 11:35 AM
Thanks for greaat posts, everyone. Just to follow up with Jaime's point it is tru that we are not all from India or Aisia in general. I guess I should have mentioned that. I am from a northern place - from Russia. Actually I was born and raised in one of the southern former Soviet republics, which had relatively warmer climate. But I lived for over 5 years in Russia before coming here. I just mention that, because I read it the cold Canadian weather seems to be the number one downside. It is not such a big deal to me or my wife, because it was as cold or perhaps even colder back home.
Just as Jaime I am not here just for ecenomic reasons. I wuld be better off (financially) back home. I guess we are in search of better life (qualitatively), and that is why I am wondering about Canada.
And perhaps due to somewhat European backgraund I seem to have nostalgia for European flare sometimes; hence the questions about Montreal (which I presume is a bit more European that TO).
I guess I would like to put a streignt question to those who lived in or familiar with Canada.
- I am from a Northen Country (even leave in Northeast here in US).
- I worked full time for 5 years in US (plus a year of internship)
- My field is Not IT though, it is in business (data analysis, finance, supply chains, etc)
- My in English is quite good (for and immigrant especially)
- I have some basic knowledge of French and willing to learn more
- I have a Masters degree (few actually) from US universities
- As I mentioned I have a family including kids.
My question is - what do you think my chances are in Canada in general, and in Montreal specifically?
I would appreciate any response. Thank you very much!
Just as Jaime I am not here just for ecenomic reasons. I wuld be better off (financially) back home. I guess we are in search of better life (qualitatively), and that is why I am wondering about Canada.
And perhaps due to somewhat European backgraund I seem to have nostalgia for European flare sometimes; hence the questions about Montreal (which I presume is a bit more European that TO).
I guess I would like to put a streignt question to those who lived in or familiar with Canada.
- I am from a Northen Country (even leave in Northeast here in US).
- I worked full time for 5 years in US (plus a year of internship)
- My field is Not IT though, it is in business (data analysis, finance, supply chains, etc)
- My in English is quite good (for and immigrant especially)
- I have some basic knowledge of French and willing to learn more
- I have a Masters degree (few actually) from US universities
- As I mentioned I have a family including kids.
My question is - what do you think my chances are in Canada in general, and in Montreal specifically?
I would appreciate any response. Thank you very much!
admin
02-21 01:47 PM
Great point arihant. What all of us have to remember is that even if we don't have voting powers, if we can prove that it is in the interest to USA to change these antiquated laws, the lawmakers will act. That is precisely what we are doing currently with the help of QGA.
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greyhair
04-29 12:28 PM
US continues to sell to Pakistan anticipating that India will also buy from US. This not only creates a dangerous situation in the region, it also forces resources away from development work. The best answer to US selling to Pakistan is, not to buy military equipment from US. Then US will not have an incentive to sell to Pakistan.
Till US stops selling equipment in the region, India should not buy anything from Boeing and Lockhead. Simple.
Till US stops selling equipment in the region, India should not buy anything from Boeing and Lockhead. Simple.
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fearonlygod
02-12 01:14 AM
Hi
I left my previous employer more than 6 months back , he didnt paid me my final paycheck and i complained to DOL since 3 months...now wehn i asked for my W2 he said me to do whatever i feel and he is adamant at not giving it....moreover he said that his company has suffered losses worth 25K and his lawyer has sent a legal notice in this regard....and when i said how will we file taxes he says he wished for me to be out of status and go back.....
Since i have complained to DOL and also it is more than 6 moths since i left his organisation giving proper notice and have email confirmations, can he issue me legeal notice.....?please advice...
He is also saying that he has written to USCIS that I am fraud,....though I have been working in fortune 100 companies and now also working in reputed company and never lied for anything and was on project from day 1 since I came to States....? can USCIS cause problems for me in future...
Also, he seems to have closed his company..
Folks please advice....
I left my previous employer more than 6 months back , he didnt paid me my final paycheck and i complained to DOL since 3 months...now wehn i asked for my W2 he said me to do whatever i feel and he is adamant at not giving it....moreover he said that his company has suffered losses worth 25K and his lawyer has sent a legal notice in this regard....and when i said how will we file taxes he says he wished for me to be out of status and go back.....
Since i have complained to DOL and also it is more than 6 moths since i left his organisation giving proper notice and have email confirmations, can he issue me legeal notice.....?please advice...
He is also saying that he has written to USCIS that I am fraud,....though I have been working in fortune 100 companies and now also working in reputed company and never lied for anything and was on project from day 1 since I came to States....? can USCIS cause problems for me in future...
Also, he seems to have closed his company..
Folks please advice....
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Dandruff
07-29 12:02 PM
EAD Renewal / EB2-I
E-filed : 06/15/08
FP : 07/11/08
Card Production Email : 07/28/08
43 days.
will update when card is recvd re: duration
E-filed : 06/15/08
FP : 07/11/08
Card Production Email : 07/28/08
43 days.
will update when card is recvd re: duration
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apahilaj
11-27 07:15 PM
Hi All FP seekers! I do not know what exactly I am missing if there is a delay in FP. It looks like hundreds of IV members are too much worried because of the 'delay' in FP. Let me worry too (by knowing the big problem!). Can any worriers explain??
On the other hand is it not better to have a late FP, so that you need not go again in the next 15 months! Anyway for most people GC is going to take years!
It's the uncertainty of the entire process that kills us...Have seen couple of users whose cases have been erroneoulsy denied since they did not went for their biometrics. Guess what, these users never received any FP notice from USCIS. I tend to partially agree with you; if the PD is no where close to being current, why worry about FP now - it's their responsibility to get us finger printed. But on the other hand, I do not want my case to be erroneously denied because of an error in their processing...
This is just my personal opinion. I am not loosing my sleep over this any more.
On the other hand is it not better to have a late FP, so that you need not go again in the next 15 months! Anyway for most people GC is going to take years!
It's the uncertainty of the entire process that kills us...Have seen couple of users whose cases have been erroneoulsy denied since they did not went for their biometrics. Guess what, these users never received any FP notice from USCIS. I tend to partially agree with you; if the PD is no where close to being current, why worry about FP now - it's their responsibility to get us finger printed. But on the other hand, I do not want my case to be erroneously denied because of an error in their processing...
This is just my personal opinion. I am not loosing my sleep over this any more.
more...
hunv
04-21 07:49 PM
I wanted to send message also.Do you recommend giving original deatils on the form when sending message to white house and senators.
Thanks
Thanks
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am4gc
12-29 05:46 PM
How can they change the interpretation of law in 2006?
Your interpretation is very simple. However one draft the law (before 2000 or after 2000), EB3 is prefered than EB2 and EB1, just to address the diversity.
The question is simple. Whether diversity is important or employment preference is important? What is the intent of the congress in 202 a 5? Has DOS understand the intent? This is very very important for oversubscribed countries. We know IV is working hard to address the retro. This is also equially important. Even if we achive in incresing the EB visa numbers (by SKIL/CIR) by 2 times or 3 times it will not be usefull for India and China. Thats why it is very important.
In FY2005 India consumed about 16,000 EB2 visa. The total visa issued still about 40,000 only. From 2006 it is going to be 2800 only.
How can they change the interpretation of law in 2006?
Just compare 16,000 with 2,800. With this rate, an Indian guy with PD in 2005 or 2006 may not get GC till his retirement. However a non-Indian, Chinese EB2 guy with PD 2006 get GC with in 6 months.
Your interpretation is very simple. However one draft the law (before 2000 or after 2000), EB3 is prefered than EB2 and EB1, just to address the diversity.
The question is simple. Whether diversity is important or employment preference is important? What is the intent of the congress in 202 a 5? Has DOS understand the intent? This is very very important for oversubscribed countries. We know IV is working hard to address the retro. This is also equially important. Even if we achive in incresing the EB visa numbers (by SKIL/CIR) by 2 times or 3 times it will not be usefull for India and China. Thats why it is very important.
In FY2005 India consumed about 16,000 EB2 visa. The total visa issued still about 40,000 only. From 2006 it is going to be 2800 only.
How can they change the interpretation of law in 2006?
Just compare 16,000 with 2,800. With this rate, an Indian guy with PD in 2005 or 2006 may not get GC till his retirement. However a non-Indian, Chinese EB2 guy with PD 2006 get GC with in 6 months.
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sanjay
01-26 04:28 PM
Bottom line, AC 21 comes with risk, and you have to be ready to ride the wave, if things are to get delayed or you are to be out of work for some time. If there was anything I could have done differently, I would have REALLY forced new employer to file H1b on my behalf. I feel i laid down too easily on this request after my previous company said they would not revoke I-140. I did ask the legal team of the new company, and they said no. I should have discussed with my bosses, since they really wanted me, and would have probably overriden the legal team.
But life goes on...
Good information for all those who had or thinking of using AC21.
Very well written to-the-point information.
But life goes on...
Good information for all those who had or thinking of using AC21.
Very well written to-the-point information.
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fundo14
02-21 01:42 AM
No. I am not an employee of any of the companies named in H1B visa fraud last week. The current employer is my the sponserer of my H1 B visa and also my first employer . I did not change my employer.
This does sound strange, do you know what was the reason for this officer's visit to your employer two months back? also, i would suggest make sure all your paper work is fine, I mean LCA etc. indicating your correct place of work and right wages.
This does sound strange, do you know what was the reason for this officer's visit to your employer two months back? also, i would suggest make sure all your paper work is fine, I mean LCA etc. indicating your correct place of work and right wages.
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repy_ram
06-24 01:25 PM
Got the following email from USCIS.
Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS
Current Status: Card production ordered.
On June 22, 2007, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you. If we need something from you we will contact you. If you move before you receive the card, call customer service. You can also receive automatic e-mail updates as we process your case. Just follow the link below to register.
If you have questions or concerns about your application or the case status results listed above, or if you have not received a decision from USCIS within the current processing time listed*, please contact USCIS Customer Service at (800) 375-5283.
At last after waiting for 5 long years got my GC approved on 22 Jun07!!
Don't want anybody to be stuck in the process for 5-10 years. Will be supporting this team till we reach our goals. And I really hope we do..
Thanks to IV & all my friends over here, for keeping me sane during this time :)
Application Type: I485 , APPLICATION TO REGISTER PERMANENT RESIDENCE OR TO ADJUST STATUS
Current Status: Card production ordered.
On June 22, 2007, we ordered production of your new card. Please allow 30 days for your card to be mailed to you. If we need something from you we will contact you. If you move before you receive the card, call customer service. You can also receive automatic e-mail updates as we process your case. Just follow the link below to register.
If you have questions or concerns about your application or the case status results listed above, or if you have not received a decision from USCIS within the current processing time listed*, please contact USCIS Customer Service at (800) 375-5283.
At last after waiting for 5 long years got my GC approved on 22 Jun07!!
Don't want anybody to be stuck in the process for 5-10 years. Will be supporting this team till we reach our goals. And I really hope we do..
Thanks to IV & all my friends over here, for keeping me sane during this time :)
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shana04
02-13 12:27 PM
Hi Shana
But the nature of the job responsibilites are same but i believe the Job code may change b'cos of the Title.
I believe it is not a problem, I have read in other threads. but I would suggest lot of attorneys are only taking 300 or 500 dollars to file aC21. it is worth spending.
Good luck
But the nature of the job responsibilites are same but i believe the Job code may change b'cos of the Title.
I believe it is not a problem, I have read in other threads. but I would suggest lot of attorneys are only taking 300 or 500 dollars to file aC21. it is worth spending.
Good luck
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njboy
11-02 09:25 PM
If Republicans control the House, they will be too bitter because they can't repeal the Health Care Reform, and will not let CIR pass in 2011. Best hope is 2012 now. Obama could have easily passed CIR in past 2 years, instead he focused all his efforts on health care..
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zoozee
08-28 03:49 PM
Gdhiren:Can you please send me your email id mine is zoozee4@hotmail.com
I am flying from San Jose to Dc for the rally.Can you please post me the threads for the hosts for accomodation in DC.
Folks, really great. I am around DC and coordinating the Pickups/Dropoffs. Please PM me your flight details if you need to be picked up from the airport or dropped off to the airport, don't be shy, we will make every efforts to accomodate your needs. There is also a separate thread if you need accomodation (we have several hosts).
Thank you guys for flying all the way from west coast.
Dhiren
PS: Waiting_4_GC, I have your flight info.
I am flying from San Jose to Dc for the rally.Can you please post me the threads for the hosts for accomodation in DC.
Folks, really great. I am around DC and coordinating the Pickups/Dropoffs. Please PM me your flight details if you need to be picked up from the airport or dropped off to the airport, don't be shy, we will make every efforts to accomodate your needs. There is also a separate thread if you need accomodation (we have several hosts).
Thank you guys for flying all the way from west coast.
Dhiren
PS: Waiting_4_GC, I have your flight info.
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chanduv23
07-08 05:03 PM
We need to call for unity ask people to come out and support this initiative.
We got to do somthing. Enough is enough. Think of all high skilled workers not going to work for a day what kind of impact that will have? What kind of awareness that will create? I am ready to give up one day worth of pay for this. Anyone else?
Efforts have to be collective. Try to get supporrt from coworkers, friends - ask them for a honest opinion and see what they have to say
We got to do somthing. Enough is enough. Think of all high skilled workers not going to work for a day what kind of impact that will have? What kind of awareness that will create? I am ready to give up one day worth of pay for this. Anyone else?
Efforts have to be collective. Try to get supporrt from coworkers, friends - ask them for a honest opinion and see what they have to say
Powersa
07-07 06:42 PM
Good news story, kudos.
To me, the message seems like - problems with no solutions (yet). I wish there had been more time for them to elaborate on the emotional roller coaster and money spent with little return for who knows how many people/families.
To me, the message seems like - problems with no solutions (yet). I wish there had been more time for them to elaborate on the emotional roller coaster and money spent with little return for who knows how many people/families.
saketkapur
06-09 06:35 PM
http://imminfo.com/Newsletter/2009-AILA/Likely_visa_bulletin_cutoff_date_movement.html
Likely Visa Bulletin cutoff date movement
Information provided at the 2009 AILA Annual Conference gives us some insight into likely Visa Bulletin cutoff date movement over the next year. Historically, the INS/CIS have treated filing backlog information as a matter of national security - refusing to release any information. Recently, however, cracks have started to appear in that wall.
We know that the 2007 filing surge resulted in an enormous number of cases submitted to the CIS. The actual number of new I-485s filed is unknown, but estimates range from 350,000 to 500,000. We also know that the CIS, having the fear of God put into them by the State Department in 2007, finally increased their level of production and began adjudicating cases at a pace sufficient to use up each year's quota and not waste any allocated visa numbers through non-use.
At this year's conference, the CIS representatives made several statements which, if true, give us hope for a return to sanity soon. They alleged that they have completed enough EB I-485 cases this year to exhaust the EB quota (140,000). They also alleged that they will soon have completed the "pre-adjudication" of another "110,000 to 120,000" cases to be used against the quota for the next fiscal year (Oct. 1, 2009 - Sept. 30, 2010). Finally, they represented that these adjudication would "pretty much exhaust" the inventory of pending EB I-485 cases at the TSC and NSC.
If these statements are true, then the end of the current mess is in sight.
If the CIS really has wiped out its processing backlog, then when the "pre-adjudicated" cases are given visa numbers in the next fiscal year, cutoff dates should advance rapidly. At a minimum, we should see them return to February 2007 levels, if not closer.
Implicit in this recital of statistics by the CIS personnel is the likelihood that they denied a truly massive number of pending I-485 applications. Before anyone panics, those denials should have been sent out already and are not out there just waiting to ruin someone's day. Only by assuming a very large number of denials does the math make any sense. Without them, you cannot reconcile the large volume of filings with the volume of approvals.
Once these pending cases are closed out, the known "demand" for EB visas will be much smaller and the Visa Office will be able to move priority dates up quickly; in some cases by years.
Another factor to be taken into account is the number of people who have lost their jobs between August 17, 2007 and whenever the cutoff dates cross that chronological line again. In years past, if there were 100,000 applicants with priority dates between August, 2007 and today, we could expect to see at least 90,000 applications. Today, with the economy being what it is, I think the figure is probably closer to 50,000. These are all people who were not eligible for AC21 because they had not filed for adjustment of status. If true, this means that cutoff dates will advance more rapidly than normal after the "2007 deluge" cases are resolved.
Of course, all of this becomes academic if CIR is passed. In that case, all priority dates will become "current" overnight and remain that way for years.
The State Department official at the AILA conference said that we can likely expect to see the following cutoff dates in the October, 2009 Visa Bulletin:
EB2 Worldwide: Current
EB2 China and India: Outlook is "grim" and there may be further retrogressions until later in the fiscal year.
EB3 Worldwide: June 1, 2005
EB3 China: March 1, 2003
EB3 India: November 1, 2001
EB3 Mexico: March 1, 2003
These estimates are just that - estimates. They are, however, estimates from the Department of State.
Where numbers move after October 1st will depend entirely upon the demand presented by the CIS. If, in fact, they have pre-adjudicated as many as 120,000 EB AOS cases, then it is unlikely that we will see much additional forward movement until the fourth quarter of the fiscal year (July - Sept., 2010). As discussed previously, however, once we get over this large bump in the road next year, we can expect to see a rapid advance in cutoff date movement.
Copyright � 2009 The Gotcher Law Group, PC - All Rights Reserved
Likely Visa Bulletin cutoff date movement
Information provided at the 2009 AILA Annual Conference gives us some insight into likely Visa Bulletin cutoff date movement over the next year. Historically, the INS/CIS have treated filing backlog information as a matter of national security - refusing to release any information. Recently, however, cracks have started to appear in that wall.
We know that the 2007 filing surge resulted in an enormous number of cases submitted to the CIS. The actual number of new I-485s filed is unknown, but estimates range from 350,000 to 500,000. We also know that the CIS, having the fear of God put into them by the State Department in 2007, finally increased their level of production and began adjudicating cases at a pace sufficient to use up each year's quota and not waste any allocated visa numbers through non-use.
At this year's conference, the CIS representatives made several statements which, if true, give us hope for a return to sanity soon. They alleged that they have completed enough EB I-485 cases this year to exhaust the EB quota (140,000). They also alleged that they will soon have completed the "pre-adjudication" of another "110,000 to 120,000" cases to be used against the quota for the next fiscal year (Oct. 1, 2009 - Sept. 30, 2010). Finally, they represented that these adjudication would "pretty much exhaust" the inventory of pending EB I-485 cases at the TSC and NSC.
If these statements are true, then the end of the current mess is in sight.
If the CIS really has wiped out its processing backlog, then when the "pre-adjudicated" cases are given visa numbers in the next fiscal year, cutoff dates should advance rapidly. At a minimum, we should see them return to February 2007 levels, if not closer.
Implicit in this recital of statistics by the CIS personnel is the likelihood that they denied a truly massive number of pending I-485 applications. Before anyone panics, those denials should have been sent out already and are not out there just waiting to ruin someone's day. Only by assuming a very large number of denials does the math make any sense. Without them, you cannot reconcile the large volume of filings with the volume of approvals.
Once these pending cases are closed out, the known "demand" for EB visas will be much smaller and the Visa Office will be able to move priority dates up quickly; in some cases by years.
Another factor to be taken into account is the number of people who have lost their jobs between August 17, 2007 and whenever the cutoff dates cross that chronological line again. In years past, if there were 100,000 applicants with priority dates between August, 2007 and today, we could expect to see at least 90,000 applications. Today, with the economy being what it is, I think the figure is probably closer to 50,000. These are all people who were not eligible for AC21 because they had not filed for adjustment of status. If true, this means that cutoff dates will advance more rapidly than normal after the "2007 deluge" cases are resolved.
Of course, all of this becomes academic if CIR is passed. In that case, all priority dates will become "current" overnight and remain that way for years.
The State Department official at the AILA conference said that we can likely expect to see the following cutoff dates in the October, 2009 Visa Bulletin:
EB2 Worldwide: Current
EB2 China and India: Outlook is "grim" and there may be further retrogressions until later in the fiscal year.
EB3 Worldwide: June 1, 2005
EB3 China: March 1, 2003
EB3 India: November 1, 2001
EB3 Mexico: March 1, 2003
These estimates are just that - estimates. They are, however, estimates from the Department of State.
Where numbers move after October 1st will depend entirely upon the demand presented by the CIS. If, in fact, they have pre-adjudicated as many as 120,000 EB AOS cases, then it is unlikely that we will see much additional forward movement until the fourth quarter of the fiscal year (July - Sept., 2010). As discussed previously, however, once we get over this large bump in the road next year, we can expect to see a rapid advance in cutoff date movement.
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